GOLD surges on political uncertainty and Fed easing expectations

Gold OANDA:XAUUSD

Xayah_trading

XAUUSD climbed to a fresh record high in the first trading session of the week, as expectations of an extended rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a wave of safe-haven assets continued to strengthen the rally.

Spot gold ended the session on Monday (October 20) up 2.47%, equivalent to $104.81, at $4,355.72/ounce, its biggest one-day gain since July. The recovery came after a correction last weekend, when the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell two basis points to 3.991%, dragging the USD down. The US real yield, a measure reflecting the opportunity cost of holding gold, also fell to 1.723%.

The rally suggests the market is “repositioning expectations” as the Fed is expected to maintain its easy policy for the rest of the year. Investors now see a 96% chance of another 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025, according to CME FedWatch data.
In addition to monetary policy factors, the political picture in Washington has also contributed to the demand for gold. The US government entered the 20th day of a partial shutdown, with Congress still unable to reach a budget deal. This situation has delayed important economic data, including the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), clouding the economic picture ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week.

Global geopolitical risks continue to play a central role. Fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has flared up again, threatening to unravel the recently signed ceasefire. Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are set to resume in Malaysia as the November 10 trade war truce deadline approaches. US President Donald Trump is expected to increase pressure on Beijing to cut fentanyl exports and resume soybean imports.

Personally, I believe that the combination of political, interest rate and global trade concerns is pushing gold back to the center of the international financial market. Gold prices could approach $4,500/ounce in the short term, and the possibility of reaching $5,000/ounce next year if political tensions continue to escalate.

With a gain of more than 62% since the beginning of the year, gold is currently the best performing asset among major commodities. The main drivers are strong central bank buying, the trend of de-dollarization of foreign exchange reserves and capital flows into Western gold ETFs.

Amid widespread political uncertainty and a dovish US monetary policy, gold appears to be resuming its historic role as not just a safe haven, but a measure of global confidence in the current financial system.

Technical Analysis XAUUSD
Gold's medium-term uptrend remains strong within the uptrend channel, despite a short-term correction around the historical peak of $4,379/ounce. The candle on October 21 showed slight technical selling pressure after a long rally, but the price structure is still above the 21-day moving average (MA21) and has not broken the main uptrend channel.

The Fibonacci correction zones show that the important support levels are located at:
• 4,289 – 4,213 USD/ounce (Fibo 0.236–0.382): the nearest support zone, where buying pressure can return.
• 4,161 USD (Fibo 0.5): the balance level, which also coincides with the previous short-term bottom.
• 4,110 USD (Fibo 0.618): the important support level to preserve the medium-term uptrend.

The RSI is still above 70, reflecting the market in the overbought zone but there is no clear bearish divergence signal. This shows that there is a possibility of a short-term technical correction, but there is not enough sign for a trend reversal.

Overall, the main uptrend is still dominant, with the next target at 4,454 - 4,527 USD/ounce (Fibo extension zone 0.618 - 0.786).
If the price breaks through the 4,110 USD area, the bullish pattern will be temporarily invalidated, then we should observe the reaction around MA21 (~3,940 USD).

Comment: Gold is still in the "trend stability phase" with corrections considered as opportunities for re-accumulation, not reversal signals. Short-term investors should take advantage of technical recovery to optimize entry points, while closely controlling the risk zone below 4,110 USD.

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4452 - 4450⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4456

→Take Profit 1 4444
↨
→Take Profit 2 4438

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4300 - 4302⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4296

→Take Profit 1 4308
↨
→Take Profit 2 4314

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/ZHUmggYT-GOLD-surges-on-political-uncertainty-and-Fed-easing-expectations/

PYPL Weekly Outlook (Oct 21–25): Buyers Defend the Base

PayPal Holdings, Inc. BATS:PYPL

BullBearInsights

Can Bulls Reclaim $70? 🚀

📆 Daily Chart — Macro Structure and Bias
Market Structure:
PayPal (PYPL) continues to trade within a broad descending channel but is showing early signs of structural stabilization. After several failed breakdowns, bulls defended the $64.50–$65.00 demand zone — a key level where prior liquidity sweeps triggered reversals. The most recent BOS (Break of Structure) around $69.00 indicates that smart money might be accumulating again within this base range.
We can see multiple CHoCH and BOS interactions suggesting buyers are quietly absorbing supply below $70, preparing for a potential structural shift back toward the mid-channel zone.

Supply & Demand / Order Blocks:
* Major Demand Zone: $64.00–$65.00 (deep OB and liquidity defense).
* Intermediate Supply Zone: $70.50–$71.00 (mid-channel resistance).
* Major Supply Zone: $79.00–$80.00 (top of the previous swing high cluster).
If bulls can maintain daily closes above $68.50, this could evolve into a mid-term reversal attempt toward $75+.

Indicator Confluence:
* 9 EMA vs 21 EMA: Bearish on macro view but flattening — momentum loss from sellers.
* MACD: Histogram is improving from deep negative; a cross above zero could confirm a macro shift.
* Stoch RSI: Rising sharply from oversold (10 → 45), signaling renewed buying strength.
* Volume: Buyer volume expanding near the base, consistent with accumulation phase behavior.
The daily structure remains in a potential bottoming phase; sustained closes above $69.50 will confirm a bullish shift.

⏱️ 1-Hour Chart — Short-Term Trend and Swing Bias

Market Structure:
The 1-hour timeframe paints a much clearer bullish microstructure after a decisive CHoCH from the descending wedge. Price reclaimed $67.00, then printed a BOS toward $69.20, completing the first leg of reversal structure.
We’re now consolidating just beneath $69.80–$70.00, which lines up with the mid-term supply zone and a key call wall on the GEX chart. The structure remains bullish as long as $68.00 holds as a higher low.

Supply & Demand / OB Zones:
* Demand Zone: $67.00–$68.00 (recent breakout OB).
* Supply Zone: $69.80–$70.50 (local resistance and liquidity pocket).

Indicator Confluence:
* 9 EMA > 21 EMA — clear bullish alignment, steep slope.
* MACD: Strong expansion with rising histogram, supporting upward bias.
* Stoch RSI: Hovering at 80+ — slightly overheated, but not reversing yet.
* Volume: Increasing on breakouts, declining during pullbacks — healthy pattern.

Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish Setup: Buy dips near $68.20–$68.50 → Target $70.00 / $71.00 → Stop $67.20.
* Bearish Setup: If rejection from $70.50 with divergence → Short to $68.00 / $67.00 → Stop $71.00.
If PYPL breaks and closes above $70, it will invalidate short setups and start targeting $72.50–$73.50 next.

🕒 15-Minute Chart — Intraday Momentum and Scalping Zones

Market Structure:
The 15-minute chart confirms strong short-term bullish control with stacked BOS and higher-low formations. Price is trending neatly along the rising intraday trendline, using the 9 EMA as dynamic support. Each micro pullback toward $68.80–$69.00 has been aggressively defended.

Supply & Demand / OB Levels:
* Demand Zone: $68.60–$68.80 (scalp OB and trendline support).
* Supply Zone: $69.80–$70.20 (intraday resistance + liquidity sweep potential).

Indicator Confluence:
* 9 EMA vs 21 EMA: Strong bullish slope; 9 EMA acting as perfect bounce line.
* MACD: Histogram slightly flattening after expansion — possible short-term cool-off.
* Stoch RSI: Overbought (>80), indicating potential short-term pause before continuation.

Scalp Plan:
* Bullish Bias: Enter near $68.80 pullback → Target $69.80 / $70.20 → Stop below $68.20.
* Bearish Bias: If $70 rejects twice with fading MACD momentum → Short scalp to $68.80 → Stop $70.40.
Intraday bias stays bullish unless price closes below $68.50 — that would mark short-term exhaustion.

📊 GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment Overview

PYPL’s options structure shows a neutral-to-bullish gamma setup with dealers likely positioned to stabilize price between $66–$70. The highest positive NET GEX sits around $70, effectively pinning current price in a tight gamma range.

Key GEX Levels:
* Highest Positive Gamma: $70.00 (dealer magnet).
* Major Call Walls: $72.00 and $74.00 — resistance zones if momentum expands.
* Put Support: $65.00 and $64.00 — strong floor if pullback occurs.
* IVR: 58.6 — elevated but not extreme, indicating active trader participation.
* Call Flow: 35.2% (muted but rising), suggesting cautious optimism.

If price sustains above $70.00, dealer hedging could flip to positive gamma expansion, pressing for a gradual melt-up toward $73–$74. A rejection below $68.00, however, might trigger delta-neutral unwind and short-term reversion to $65.

🎯 Closing Outlook
PYPL enters the week with a constructive recovery tone. The broader daily structure suggests a possible bottoming phase, while the intraday trend shows active buyer defense near $68. The GEX map supports a magnetized range between $68–$70, with potential gamma breakout if momentum persists midweek.

I’m watching for a decisive daily close above $70 — if bulls manage that, $72.50–$74 could be in play before the week ends. Below $68, expect a controlled retest toward $65 before another attempt higher.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.


source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PYPL/QqKZzve8-PYPL-Weekly-Outlook-Oct-21-25-Buyers-Defend-the-Base/