XAUUSD Technical Analysis H1
Head and Shoulders & Elliott Wave Convergence
Gold is currently exhibiting a definitive trend reversal signal following a sustained bullish run. This analysis combines classical chart patterns with Elliott Wave theory to outline the high-probability path forward.
Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S)
The H&S structure is clearly visible on the current timeframe, signaling buyer exhaustion:
Left Shoulder: Formed around the 4,730 level.
Head: Peaked at 4,760, where significant selling pressure was encountered.
Right Shoulder: Has completed a retest of the 4,750 zone and is now showing signs of rejection.
Neckline: Currently situated between 4,660 – 4,670. A decisive break below this line will confirm the bearish reversal.
Elliott Wave Perspective
The price action is entering a corrective phase, currently transitioning into a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure:
Waves (1) & (2): Completed, establishing the peak and a minor corrective bounce.
Wave (3): Expected to be the most aggressive expansion wave, targeting the "Buy Scalping" zone near 4,630 – 4,640.
Wave (4): A projected technical pullback to retest overhead supply.
Wave (5): The final leg lower, aiming for the "Liquidity Strong" zone at 4,550 – 4,560.
Key Institutional Levels
FVG Sell Zone : The 4,700 – 4,720 range serves as a critical resistance. This is the optimal "Sell on Strength" area if a relief rally occurs.
Sell-Side Liquidity: The 4,661 level represents a major liquidity pool. A sustained close below this point is likely to accelerate the downward momentum.
Liquidity Strong : The 4,550 area is a high-confluence zone for buyers and serves as the primary target for the completed cycle.
Trading Strategy
Bias: Bearish / Sell on Rallies
Sell
Primary Entry: Sell within the FVG Zone (4,700 – 4,715) on a corrective bounce.
Breakout Entry: Sell Stop below the Neckline 4,660
Take Profit : TP1 at 4,635 (Scalp target), TP2 at 4,560
Stop Loss : Above the Right Shoulder peak at 4,755
Buy Scalping:
Counter-trend scalps should only be considered at 4,635 or 4,555, contingent on clear price rejection and lower timeframe confirmations.
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/V3lHvACd-XAUUSD-Technical-Analysis-H1/
