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Monday, August 17, 2020

The fascinating world of boredom trades

The fascinating world of boredom trades

GOLD (US$/OZ) TVC:GOLD

Going to expose my recent half month history and then talk a bit about boredom trading in general.

Hey, so I guess I'm the typical breakeven trader now.
Usually they say "you'll give all your profits back" at least I am able to breakeven.
I think my timeframe is 2 weeks because I often think in half months like many think in quarters or months or days.

And the second half of July were 2 very active weeks, hahaha I'm pissing myself looking at my journal I took plenty of trades all over the board and kept winning, but they were LITERALLY ALL, EVERY SINGLE ONE, a short on the USDOLLAR .
I had 1 breakeven on copper mid month, then just machine gun shorts on the USD. Could almost call it a single idea or trade.
When I said I kept winning well no I did not I had 50% strike rate but I had big R's. The usd went very far away. The machine gun spree ends with a row of losers as the usd stopped going down.
I gave a few R back which is not a big deal, and then knew to stay away. Very good half month. Hard to get passive after that.

And then I got bored and fomo shorted the usdsek . Not a good place to sell. No valid price action. Nah. Boredom, nothing else, "might continue down might as well sell never know".
Then gold went up again and I chased it on H1 which sounds bad but I have the skill dw about me this is not the problem here. I chained (small) win after win and got good results out of it.
Wheat was not really a boredom trade and I do not regret it. Because I want to learn more about other markets... Or just because I won? XD Can't tell.
And then... I just went nuts and chained the boredom trades ๐Ÿ˜‚. Mainly losses.
Day 1 "Ok if I can just get a few R for the month I'll be happy and won't try to get more. I understand if it is a slow month. I can stop whenever I want."
Day 10 "PLEASE I NEED MORE GIVE ME MY FIX JUST 1 LAST PLEASE"


I hit the roulette wheel in every market because why not? It's obvious it was boredom why would I check agri , AND crypto, AND stocks?
And I just breakeven... Not bad, hey I am not losing money, good start, oh wait not it just means I have no clue and no edge whatsoever, literal coinflip ๐Ÿ˜‚
I want to take a look at those asset classes:

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They all suck. Too expensive & noisy, too slow too many gaps, too slow and boring to death.
Why'd I even waste my time?

It is important to analyse those rationally after binge-gambling.

And of course, with my other strat I missed a good one... (I have 2 main strat and then I allow myself to go on instinct a bit see what happens)
Might have spotted it otherwise. I rarely get opportunities on it, shame...

You think you'll "age" out of it, but the addiction just keeps growing. Try to keep busy. Solutions include spending time on backtesting, reviewing the past week month year, reading, going on forums, posting ideas, or just getting a life but let's be real that's not part of the attributes of a profitable trader, I'd call it a requirement, to be autistic anti-social and have no life. You at least have to be able to think differently, outside the box, and the more "weird" you are, the greater your potential. Thinking for one self does not enable one to mix up with the sheep. It's lonely at the top.

In the 1910's Jesse Livermore after losing most of his money being stupid with cotton had so much luck that the markets were the flatest they have ever been (it is visible on the dow jones chart). He lost his money and then even went into debt for 1 million (1910 million!). He had to declare bankrupcy.
If you know a bit about him you know he was always looking for big moves, and when they were there he traded them perfectly and just was a monster. He bought every top and sold every bottom during certain good periods (of several years), he is known for the big 1929 short that got him summoned by the president xd.
How much would he had made with George Soros in 92? And in ~2007?

Easy to get overconfident when doing well, and easy to get addicted and keep taking rando bets "I am so good, no fear".
And when you do not get punished (no money lost) you just continue...
Am I going to continue? Looking at agri choppy & expensive charts, long term stocks, and boring to death crypto, has depressed me so much I think I'm disgusted.
But I probably will continue to play with FX & hard commodities , I learn alot when I do this (and here we go with the dishonest justification).
You need passion to be good, but when you have it, you need to always be active. Check mate.

Let's hope we can all learn from history lessons.
Oh and today there are more markets also, but at the same time everything is so correlated, and either nothing moves or everything moves! Even crypto!

A trick? Maybe being invested in something can be a solution. When markets are slow you'll at least be in something, and have something to think of.
But then you'll start to "adjust" it... Check mate. There is no hope.

Is it this bad?

The last boring year was 2015
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I'm not even afraid that what I do won't work but I'm really scare of never getting any entry, just no setup ever.
This wasn't that bad, it was reassuring.

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Really best to focus on the cleanest ones. Not sure what people should expect. 50R a year? That's a little under 5 a month.
10/month => 120/yr. All months won't be active, and all years either.

5r month with 0.5% risk means 2.5% per month and 35% per year.

The biggest risk with these dead periods is not to get no setups it's to look too hard for them. And when you have been inactive for a while you don't even know how they really look like you lose practice. Am I seing right? At least on tradingview you can use the replay function to practice a bit.
Imagine checking charts all the time but nothing happens and when you stay away you know what happens.

Another thing people do with boredom is lower the time frame and then look for something. More or less works the same as the rest.
As in it is just as bad, same reasons, same consequences.


There is no magic trick. All I can say is to look at charts, and be aware at best you will breakeven.
It is another skill: to know when to stay away. You just have to manage to deal with it.
If you find yourself losing your mind and yelling "ITS ALL OVER THE MARKETS WILL NEVER MOVE AGAIN I AM DONE" I think it's time to go out, maybe go see a doctor too.




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