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Friday, October 9, 2020

BTC: How to play with fire 101

BTC: How to play with fire 101

BTC/USD COINBASE:BTCUSD

Some important factors to consider:

  • We got a major pandemic nearing all time high infections worldwide.
  • A hugely unstable situation with in the US and upcoming elections.
  • A massive rally in all markets after the black swan event without any proper pullback.
  • The dollar at the verge of breaking a multi year pattern, or holding the pattern which would cause a massive bearish reaction in all markets.
  • Clear potential top patterns have been formed last month.
  • There has been no retest yet of the prior multi year triangle break for BTC .
  • BitMex one of the biggest exchanges is under attack by the US which caused 3 high profile functions (including the CEO ) to step down as they are being prosecuted. RIP, Arthur. This is a valid reason why the crypto markets could be more bearish than other markets.

Now we got that out of the way, let's dive into the TA.

Here's the current pattern BTC is forming and broke today.

snapshot

We clearly see a triangle pattern with a sub triangle pattern inside. As this is generally a continuation pattern of the local trend, most people would assume there would be a massive dump next.

Which leads us to the standard "execute order 66": All YouTubers will spam 6k??!!! in their thumbnail titles and the herd shall follow. Market makers set the coffee , grab the lube and click the button.

Guess what happend? We broke prior local high and most likely many of your stop losses have been taken out.

Let's dive into the move:

snapshot

snapshot

Currently the move is forming an ascending wedge , which resembles the Elliot impulse wave target wise. And the question is, are we done?

Not perse, however is it worth the risk to stay long? Maybe. Is it worth it to long the breakout? Absolutely not.

We are currently looking at strong potential reversal levels with a most likely max upside of 4% which is the golden ratio of the current top. And a down potential of ATLEAST 17-20% if not 30, 40%.

snapshot

And lets not forget how many times we saw this happen before on BTC after breaking out of an ascending wedge during a pullback phase of a bullrun.

snapshot

I'm not saying take the short, thats up to you. I have. But I am advising against longing here.

Goodluck, stay saifu



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