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Thursday, September 29, 2022

BITCOIN is falling

BITCOIN is falling

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

Yesterday's sudden reversal to Bitcoin's ( BTCUSD ) strong rise early in the day, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was far from ideal as it closed the daily candle in red. That brings to memory the last time that happened and was the last signal before a massive sell-off.

That was on May 04 2022. As you see the price was again rejected just before hitting the 1D MA50, only a few days after it marginally broke above it (April 21) but again failed, just like on September 13. Following the May 04 rejection, the resulting sell-off initially dropped by -36% and by June 18 it completed a -63% fall from the March 28 Top. Such huge decreases have not been uncommon throughout this Bear Cycle (which has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern) and especially since the November 10 All Time High, whose subsequent drop was around -52%.

I have replicated the January 22 - June 18 price action (blue) and pasted it on the post June 18 sequence. That fractal that hints to a -61% drop at around $10000. If it follows the Megaphone's first drop of -52%, then it would result to around $12000. Whatever happens, that is indeed a scary fractal , in fact the scariest projection that can be made on BTC right now. It may or may not happen. What matters is to be prepared for both and apply a strategy that utilizes the appropriate risk management.

But what's your view on this fractal? Do you think it is realistic? What are your targets for Bitcoin on a 1-2 month horizon? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!

Via TradingView Ideas

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