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Tuesday, December 27, 2022

BTCUSDT Long position Possibility

BTCUSDT Long position Possibility

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

we are going to have a look at the changes in the Bitcoin market in terms of data in the network, let's check the potential in the network for price growth, take a look at the miners, measure the supply and demand situation, and finally finish with the options market.

In general, the health of the network has improved in terms of activity compared to the previous days, and the positive point that exists is that the activity of the key range has not been lost, but in general, the level of activity is still low,
and most of the activity is done by small traders, because if we go, number If we check the transactions, we can see that there has been growth, and on contrary, the volume of transactions is at a low level,
and it shows that the whales of the network do not want to be active at the moment. In the past few days, we saw the weakening of the security of the Bitcoin network.
fell, the hash rate was decreasing at a relatively high speed, but the current situation has reached its key range, now that news has been published,
if this news is definitive, it will cause many miners to be affected, and consequently, the hash rate will be affected. It has an impact and the possibility of losing this key range increases, now considering that the income of miners
is also decreasing and if the price stays in these areas, it may strengthen the risk from this category again.
Well, I also mentioned the income of the miners. In general, the income of this category through
the construction of blocks is still decreasing compared to a year ago, but it has not reached the green area where the miners are under a lot of pressure. On the other hand, the income of the miners from Through the network has risen a bit,
but it has not been able to significantly affect the total income. If we come to check the valuation of Bitcoin , we will see that it is involved in a negative bubble, according to the MBRM index, this issue will be very clear to us.
It has a significant history and it has shown that when bitcoin is involved in a negative bubble, those who see it have investments and demand that bitcoin will be profitable for them in the long term,
but I know that you know better than me that market conditions change in every period. Paying attention to this issue, for investment, we should not pay attention to one element and must consider the view of the action market.
If I go to the supply & demand layer and check the demand, we can see that the demand and the network are mainly on the side of the traders, and they are accumulating, but for those who have ten bitcoins ,
this accumulation has calmed down a bit and they show me indecision. 16400 has become very attractive for traders and it is considered an important range because almost ten percent of the circulating balance is in this area,
and if we pay a little more attention, we can also see the behavior of speculators because when the price goes up, they sell at a profit. And again, when we return to these areas,
we see that the circulating assets are growing in this area, now if we check in terms of supply, in general, the level of hash and network has come down, whether in profit or loss, but during the past day, we have seen We had a series of sales, and again, the sales were at a loss,
and it happened from those whose coins were between 3 and 6 months old, who had the highest sales, and the total amount sold in this category was 22,000 bitcoins , but those who were in profit.
Now, they prefer to withdraw their own coins, instead of the old ones It has been 7 to 10 years wallet that the amount was low and their number was 590, and then it was two to three years that they took out 2000 bitcoins ,
but the more important thing is the behavior of speculators.
We see that the sellers are buying in the support areas, the price goes up a bit, they sell, and until the price cannot break those areas that make a profit,
the price growth can be uncertain.
Finally, if we check the amount of Bitcoin input and output to exchanges, the input is more dominant, but I don't see very serious inputs, so in general, even though Bitcoin is located in valuable areas, the potential in the network is less than before,
if the important areas of security activity are lost. Lamb naturally affects the health of the network and that effect will be negative
In terms of supply and demand ,
we can see that the demand in the network is not so high, although the width in the network is low, but the behavior of investors is more than everyone else at the moment.
Finally, we turn to the option market
, we see that the most important maturity date is December 30, the volume of open contracts is very high (approximately 2.3 billion), the most important support for us is at $15,000, then $12,000, and finally $10,000, that's right, $10,000 has much higher open interest. But in order to reach $10,000, we must first lose $15,000.
Now, considering that we mentioned that the range of 16,400 is very attractive for traders, and it has been able to work well for now.
In the end, if we examine the implied volatility together, which shows me the expectations of traders and price changes, it somehow shows the foresight of option traders. We can mention 2 things:
One is that the traders expect that we will reject this area, whether it goes up or down, on the other hand, it is a good time for those who want to work with options because the contracts have become cheaper,
and it is possible that we will see new contracts in the coming days. There will be a lot of new sentiment in this market, and if there are any changes, we will definitely update

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