BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD TESTING DEEP VALUE SUPPORT
Gold closed the week under pressure after a sharp sell-off from the upper value structure. The weekly movement shows that sellers dominated most of the session, pushing XAUUSD down from the higher Volume Profile area towards the lower liquidity zone around 4,100 - 4,200.
Last week, gold failed to hold above the Sell zone VAL and continued to rotate lower. Price is now reacting near the deep liquidity support, but the long-term downtrend has not been fully confirmed yet. This means the market may still build a technical rebound before the next major direction is decided.
From a macro view, gold may face additional pressure if the possibility of reopening the Hormuz Strait reduces energy-driven inflation risk. Improved consumer sentiment can also weaken safe-haven demand for gold. Next week, the Fed decision and SEP will be important because they can strongly affect USD momentum and rate expectations.
Technical structure
On the daily chart, gold is trading below the main descending trendline and below the previous high-volume resistance zones.
The current reaction is happening near the lower liquidity area around 4,100 - 4,200. This is an important zone because price previously found strong demand here. If buyers defend this area, gold can build a corrective rebound towards the upper value zones.
However, the broader structure remains fragile. As long as price stays below the Sell zone VAL and Sell swing POC, any recovery should still be treated as a retest, not a confirmed bullish reversal.
Important zones
Current liquidity support: 4,100 - 4,200
Main reaction area after the sharp weekly decline.
VAL support: 4,000 - 4,030
Deep value support and major downside reference.
Sell zone VAL: 4,500 - 4,540
First major resistance if gold rebounds next week.
Sell swing POC: 4,680 - 4,710
Main Volume Profile resistance and stronger sell-reaction area.
Liquidity target: 4,363
Intermediate upside liquidity area if buyers defend support.
Trading scenario
Sell reaction from Sell zone VAL / POC area
Entry:
Look for sell positions only if price rebounds into the upper value area and shows clear rejection around the Sell zone VAL or Sell swing POC.
Stop Loss:
Above the rejection structure or above the Sell swing POC zone.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,363 liquidity area
TP2: 4,100 - 4,200 support
TP3: 4,000 - 4,030 VAL support
This setup is based on the Volume Profile structure. The market may rebound from deep support first, but the stronger trading opportunity is to watch how price reacts when it returns to high-volume resistance.
Final view
Gold had a bearish week, but price is now sitting near an important deep value support. A short-term rebound is possible from 4,100 - 4,200, especially if buyers defend this liquidity area.
For next week, the key is not to chase price at the low. I will watch for a rebound into the upper value zones, then look for sell confirmation if price rejects the Sell zone VAL or Sell swing POC.
The main bias remains cautious to bearish while gold trades below the upper Volume Profile resistance.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/SC62nusJ-BRIAN-XAUUSD-GOLD-TESTING-DEEP-VALUE-SUPPORT/
No comments:
Post a Comment