Gold Extends Losses Amid Rising Inflation Concerns
📊 Market Overview:
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed Brent crude prices sharply higher (up around 12% over the past week), fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain or even raise interest rates.
Although the latest U.S. June CPI and PPI data showed easing inflation, the rally in oil prices has offset the positive impact, preventing gold from gaining momentum.
During the July 17 session, spot gold briefly fell to around $3,971/oz (its lowest level in two weeks) before recovering to approximately $3,988/oz (up 0.5% from the day's low). However, gold is still down roughly 3.2% for the week.
📉 Technical Analysis:
Resistance: $4,000/oz and $4,030/oz. (Gold has repeatedly failed to break above $4,000, while the MA50 and MA100 around $4,025–4,035 provide additional resistance.)
Support: $3,970/oz (near today's low) and $3,950/oz (a psychological level and last week's low).
EMA: Price is currently trading below both the EMA 9 and EMA 20, indicating that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Candlestick / Momentum: The daily candle on July 17 formed a long lower shadow, suggesting buying interest around $3,970, although the rebound remains weak. RSI is around 47 (neutral), while MACD remains negative, indicating weak bullish momentum.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue to decline in the short term if Middle East tensions persist and U.S. economic data remain strong, as inflation concerns and expectations of tighter Fed policy continue to weigh on the market. Conversely, easing geopolitical tensions and further cooling inflation could support a recovery toward the $4,000/oz level.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4,000–4,005
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips
❌ SL: 4,008
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 3,975–3,970
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips
❌ SL: 3,967
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/vD1xzsPA-Gold-Extends-Losses-Amid-Rising-Inflation-Concerns/
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