USD/JPY Long: Rebounding at a Higher Low / Demand Zone

U.S. DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN FX_IDC:USDJPY

NouzTrader

USD/JPY USDJPY extended its technical rebound from the 156.35–156.40 support floor (a 1.5-week low) and gathered further buying momentum, breaking through to a new weekly high above the psychological 158.00 mark during the Asian trading session on Thursday, October 1, 2026.

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✅ Japanese Macro Factors: Verbal Intervention by Atsushi Mimura & Finance Minister Katayama
From Tokyo's side, the risk of foreign exchange market intervention has intensified:

- ⚡High-Level Verbal Intervention (Atsushi Mimura & Satsuki Katayama): Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama publicly warned market participants to take the joint US-Japan message regarding speculative Yen depreciation very seriously.

- ⚡Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Hike Expectations: Markets maintain the expectation that the BoJ could raise its benchmark interest rate again as early as October or December 2026, limiting the scope for USD/JPY to surge wildly beyond the 160.00 level.

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✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe)
The H4 structure confirms a Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) formation following a sharp liquidity sweep at the Major Demand Zone floor (establishing a macro Lower Low at the 152.080 green line).

The massive rally from that low successfully broke the previous bearish structure and established a series of new peaks.

At the 158.295 price level, recent H4 price action is dominated by large-bodied green candles (indicating bullish momentum). The preceding correction held precisely above the local gray Demand Zone box (156.500 – 157.000), which acted as a new Higher Low (HL), confirming renewed buying pressure taking control of the market.

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✅ Key Zones:
- ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone: The 159.000 – 159.500 psychological level range (nearest local resistance) and the 160.355 green line (top of the Major Supply Zone / All-Time High target).

- ⚡Support / Demand Zone: The 156.500 – 157.000 range, the 155.071 green line (secondary SBR), and the 152.080 green line (Major Demand Zone / Structural Low).

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✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe:

⚡Wave Structure:
The impulsive rally from the 152.080 low toward the 159.000+ peak is calculated as an impulsive Wave 1 (or macro Wave A) movement. The corrective retracement that bounced off the 156.500 – 157.000 Demand Zone is identified as the completion of Wave 2 (Corrective Wave), manifesting as a shallow ABC pullback.

⚡Current Status:
The V-shaped rebound from the 156.500 level—which has now successfully pushed past 158.295—confirms that the Wave 2 correction has concluded and the market is entering the initial stage of the major impulsive Wave 3 expansion.

⚡Projection:
Price action is projected to complete this impulsive Wave 3 push by breaking through the 158.800 resistance and crossing the LVN zone, aiming to test the upper boundary of the Major Supply Zone at the 160.355 green line.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/88J2uMWa-USD-JPY-Long-Rebounding-at-a-Higher-Low-Demand-Zone/