XAUUSD Weekly Map: One Bounce Before the Next Selloff?
Gold enters the new week in a position where patience may matter more than prediction.
On the H4 chart, the bigger picture is still bearish. Since the weak high around 4,697, XAUUSD has continued to print lower highs while respecting the HTF bearish trendline. Multiple bearish BOS signals followed by the latest CHOCH around the 4,280–4,300 area tell me that sellers still have structural control.
Price is now sitting near 4,285, but I would not chase a SELL at the current level.
My preferred idea is simple: drop first, bounce, then look for the next bearish leg.
THE WEEKLY ROADMAP
The first area I am watching is 4,180–4,200.
If Gold trades into this zone and quickly rejects it, I expect a relief bounce toward 4,270–4,300. This would bring price back into the descending HTF trendline, where sellers may get another opportunity to step in.
That reaction is important because a bounce does not automatically mean the trend has turned bullish. In a bearish market, rallies can simply provide better prices for sellers.
SELL SETUP — MY PRIMARY SCENARIO
I want to see price recover into 4,275–4,305 and fail to break the descending trendline.
Entry: 4,275–4,305
SL: 4,335
TP1: 4,200
TP2: 4,120
TP3: 4,040
Final target: 3,996
The ideal confirmation would be an H4 rejection candle or a lower-timeframe bearish structure shift inside this area.
There is also a more aggressive bearish trigger.
If Gold breaks below 4,180 with an H4 close and then retests 4,180–4,200 from underneath, I would consider that confirmation that the bounce scenario has failed.
Entry: 4,180–4,200 retest
SL: 4,225
TP1: 4,120
TP2: 4,040
TP3: 3,996
WHY 3,996 MATTERS
This is the major support zone marked on my weekly map. It is not necessarily a target Gold reaches immediately, but if the bearish trendline continues to hold and support levels keep breaking, this is where I expect the larger bearish move to eventually search for liquidity.
BUY SETUP — ONLY WITH CONFIRMATION
I am not completely removing BUYs from the plan.
If Gold sweeps 4,180–4,200, strongly rejects the lows and then reclaims 4,240, I would consider a short-term countertrend BUY.
Entry: 4,235–4,250 after confirmation
SL: 4,175
TP1: 4,285
TP2: 4,320
This is a bounce trade, not my main directional bias.
For the larger bearish outlook to seriously weaken, Gold needs to break the HTF trendline and then secure an H4 close above the 4,434–4,435 short-term resistance.
If that happens, the game changes.
A successful retest of 4,420–4,435 could then offer a stronger BUY setup toward 4,480 and 4,520.
THE LEVEL THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: 4,435
Below the HTF bearish trendline and 4,435 → I remain bearish.
Sweep 4,180–4,200 + reclaim 4,240 → short-term BUY opportunity.
Break 4,180 + bearish retest → continuation SELL toward 4,120 / 4,040 / 3,996.
H4 close above 4,435 → bearish thesis weakened; start looking for BUY continuation instead.
My base case for next week is therefore:
4,285 → 4,180–4,200 → rebound toward 4,280 → rejection → 3,996.
I am not trying to predict every candle. I am waiting for Gold to reach my levels and show its hand.
Which comes first next week: 4,435 or 3,996?
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/Zh00MEHx-XAUUSD-Weekly-Map-One-Bounce-Before-the-Next-Selloff/
No comments:
Post a Comment