XAU/USD Weekly: 50-week EMA lost, 3,950 is the line
Gold closed last week at about 4,140, roughly 26 percent below the January spike high near 5,602 and 22 percent under the highest weekly close (5,278 in late February). Four of the last five weekly closes were lower, and price is back under the 50-week EMA (about 4,254). Weekly RSI sits near 42, well out of the 70-plus zone that carried the run.
The structure is a sequence of lower highs: 5,602 in January, about 4,890 in April, and 4,697 in late August. That August high is where the last rally failed, and it caps the chart until it is reclaimed.
What still holds: the 100-week EMA (about 3,872) and the 200-week EMA (about 3,267) are well below price and still rising. On the weekly this is a correction inside a long-term uptrend, not a confirmed bear market.
Levels I'm watching:
- 3,950: the June and July weekly lows (3,942 to 3,960). A weekly close below it confirms a lower low and opens the 100-week EMA near 3,870.
- 4,254: the 50-week EMA. A weekly close back above it neutralises this leg down.
- 4,697: the August lower high. The bullish case needs a break of it.
Thesis: neutral to defensive while price is under the 50-week EMA. I would not be adding long exposure until either a reclaim of 4,254, or a flush into the 3,870 to 3,950 band that holds on a weekly close.
For Australian traders: ASIC caps retail gold CFD leverage at 20:1, so a move from here to the 100-week EMA is about a 6.5 percent swing, more than enough to stop out an over-sized position. Sizing matters more than direction here; there is a free position size calculator in the SatoshiMacro tools section.
Not financial advice.
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/kzbeEQeO-XAU-USD-Weekly-50-week-EMA-lost-3-950-is-the-line/
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